Saturday, August 15, 2009

Job Losses Slow, Signaling Momentum for a Recovery?

This is one of those kinds of front page stories on the economy where the headline and reporting seem to be at odds. Editors must hope most readers won’t read much past the encouraging headline because the reporting chips away until by the end of the story you have almost the direct opposite sense from what the headline has suggested.

The first paragraph establishes that the employment report serving as the basis for the story is somehow encouraging despite that fact that businesses have not started hiring or even stopped shedding jobs.

In the second paragraph we learn the good news is that fewer jobs were lost in July(247,000)than any month in the last year. The unemployment rate actually dropped from 9.5 to 9.4 but this was because a lot of Americans have simply given up looking for work. Good news?

There is anecdotal evidence from businesses that the pressure to cut jobs is ending but several paragraphs on we register what’s lacking from the other side of this equation is that there remains no sign as to when they might start hiring again! Something like 15 million Americans have gone over six months without being able to find any kind of job. This is a 61 year-old record. Again, many more have stopped looking altogether.

There is a lot of talk about the 700 billion stimulus putting the brakes on job cuts and jumpstarting a recovery. I’m sure it hasn’t hurt. But how does this 700 billion measure up to the spending cuts at the state and city levels continuing across the country?

Currently playing: Wayne Shorter Speak No Evil

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